Two title fights heading down under in Sydney Australia.
Model only finds five total predictions on this card unfortunately as the card is full of newcomers and prospects.
But with two titles on the line, let's break down what could 10 be rounds of great MMA.
Weili Zhang (+105) vs Tatiana Suarez (-125)
The UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship is on the line as Weili Zhang looks to defend her belt for the third time in her second title reign. The only woman to ever defeat her in the UFC? Rose Namajunas—who beat her twice in 2021. Since then, Zhang has bounced back stronger than ever, proving why she’s one of the most dominant champions in the division.
Standing in her way is Tatiana Suarez, the undefeated contender who has long been viewed as a future champion. Despite injuries derailing her career for years, Suarez made her triumphant return in 2023, extending her perfect record to 11-0. Now, with the biggest opportunity of her life, she looks to finally erase the “what if” label and claim the title many assumed she’d win years ago.
Zhang Weili holds the clear striking advantage, landing 5.69 significant strikes per minute, which is 1.42 more than Suarez. But the defensive numbers favor Tatiana:
• Suarez: 1.38 significant strikes absorbed per minute
• Zhang: 3.14 significant strikes absorbed per minute
Zhang has also shown knockout power, securing 11 KOs in her career, but she has also been knocked down twice in the UFC.
This fight comes down to whether or not Suarez can get Zhang to the ground. She only spends 27% of her fight time at a distance, meaning her goal is to close the gap quickly.
Once she gets inside, the numbers are staggering:
• Tatiana Suarez’s control rate (clinch & ground): 97%!
• Weili Zhang’s control rate: 77% (still strong, but nowhere near Suarez’s level)
• Tatiana Suarez’s control position: 71%
• Tatiana’s takedown accuracy: 61%
Zhang Weili has fought strong wrestlers before, but Suarez might be a different level when it comes to top control and relentless pressure.
The model favors Tatiana Suarez with a score of 42, giving her a slight edge in this matchup. While not a full-confidence pick, the numbers suggest a strong path to victory for Suarez if she can implement her wrestling.
At -125, she is still a valuable bet (I personally locked her in at -115 earlier in the week). If she executes her game plan, we may see a new champion crowned.
Model Prediction: Tatiana Suarez
Dricus Du Plessis (-210) vs Sean Strickland (+175)
Does Sean Strickland have a staph infection? Probably...but the model looks beyond.
This is a rematch of their January 20, 2024, UFC 297 main event, where Dricus Du Plessis won the middleweight title via split decision over Sean Strickland. Since then:
• Du Plessis submitted Israel Adesanya, solidifying his reign over the division.
• Strickland bounced back with a decision win over Paulo Costa, keeping himself at the top of the division.
The first fight was a brutal war, and given their styles, we might be in for another five-round battle.
Both fighters land and absorb a lot of shots, making this a high-volume striking affair:
• Du Plessis: 6.18 significant strikes per minute (+1.33 differential)
• Strickland: 6.01 significant strikes per minute (+1.53 differential)
• Du Plessis absorbs: 4.85 strikes per minute
• Strickland absorbs: 4.48 strikes per minute
Their last fight was a war of attrition, with both men getting battered. Strickland’s cut in the fight may have affected his ability to finish strong. But I personally think he was done before that fight hit the fifth round.
While Strickland has solid wrestling, he rarely uses it aggressively. Du Plessis, on the other hand, incorporates grappling and relentless pressure into his wild striking style. His ability to mix things up could be the key once again.
Last time, the model favored Du Plessis with a confident score of 48. This time around, with only one fight each since their first encounter, the data hasn’t shifted much—but the margin is now smaller.
Du Plessis still gets the nod, but the score has shrunk to 14, indicating a much closer fight. I believe Strickland's lack of adaptability may keep him from making the necessary adjustments.
This could be another tight decision, and while Du Plessis remains the pick, the confidence is much lower than their first matchup.
Model Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis
As mentioned, there isn't as many fights modeled as we usually have in a PPV event, but we have bets on all 5 of these and that still makes for an exciting super weekend.
And I'm on the Eagles. Fly Eagles Fly.
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